Home Depot CEO Ted Decker recently warned of a concerning shift in customer behavior at big-box home improvement stores, where shoppers are curtailing spending on major renovations amid economic pressures like high inflation, elevated home prices, and waning consumer confidence. This trend, evident in their Q3 2024 earnings and call, shows consumers and pros alike trading down to budget-friendly, piecemeal fixes rather than comprehensive projects, leading to a 1% drop in average transaction value and fewer store visits.

Key pain points include sharp declines in sales of cabinets and vanities, core components of kitchen and bath remodels, as homeowners delay full overhauls. Similarly, purchases of mouldings and interior doors have slowed, reflecting hesitation on interior finishing work tied to broader home upgrades. These categories, which rely heavily on hardwood lumber for premium materials, are seeing reduced demand as projects shrink in scope.

For the hardwood lumber industry, this spells trouble: thinner order backlogs for suppliers, as mills and wholesalers face cascading effects from fewer large-scale builds. Professional contractors, a major buyer, are scaling back lumber purchases in flooring, cabinetry, and millwork, exacerbating inventory gluts and price volatility. With housing turnover at multi-year lows, the ripple effect extends to local economies that depend on remodel-driven wood consumption.

Home Depot is adapting via targeted promotions and digital tools, but the sector-wide outlook remains cautious, with forecasts for subdued growth in 2026. This consumer thriftiness underscores a shift from the post-pandemic boom to pragmatic maintenance, which is putting additional pressure on both lumber demand and margins.