After attending the Indiana Hardwood Lumbermen’s Association (IHLA) meeting last week in Indianapolis, I realized why I have never left the hardwood lumber industry. Despite many industry members facing unprecedented challenges, tariffs, log shortages, outright bans on Red Oak logs imported into China, substitute materials, and the usually discussed topics relating to broader economic challenges, most were looking to the future and wanting to discuss better times ahead.  Despite these headwinds, the overall mood was one of optimism, of better markets ahead, of opportunities in the future.  What are they seeing? 

Without regurgitating too much economic news we all see online every day, with unemployment at low levels and wage growth keeping pace with price increases, U.S. workers have the continuing wherewithal to spend on goods and services. The outlook is for the U.S. economy to grow further in 2025, but possibly at a slower rate than the previous two years. Most forecasts call for 2025 U.S. GDP growth of 2.0%, but this is certainly subject to revision, up or down, depending on the confluence of the unknown impact of tariffs, reduced government spending, and increased public sector unemployment.  Most of those attending think the economy is headed in the right direction, with a lot highlighting mortgage rates trending stable to lower, inflation being steady at just under 3%, and most noticeably lower fuel and food (egg) prices.  

The consensus among this generally optimistic group is the tariff threats, which are touted as either catastrophic or the smartest thing since sliced bread is merely a negotiating tactic where a slew of positive trade deals will result.  More than one commented that they look for the dust to settle in Q2, clearing the way for markets to begin a steady climb up in Q3 of this year.  While the timeline might be optimistic, this shared vision among most of those seen at IHLA is likely the middle-of-the-road landing that will occur.  The pay-for-click distractions of boom or disaster seen every day online are being recognized as just that, as most see the fundamentals of our markets clearing the chaff and returning to slow, steady growth in the not-to-distant future. 

At IHLA, new faces were hired, and others have changed companies, looking for new and expanded opportunities. Companies are making well-studied capital investments and are interested in doing all they can to be more competitive in the future.  The level of conversations on the future over dinner was much more open and insightful, prompting an exchange of ideas that the table next door might have asked: “Are they really friends and vendors/customers?”  

Finally, with this focus on the future, several conversations moved to what role AI might play in hardwood sales in the future, which is far too broad a subject for just a sentence or two. So, look to this column for next week’s blog post, “Sales in the Future AI-Driven World.”