High mortgage rates and cautious consumer sentiment have filled softwood yards and slowed Pacific Northwest harvests. When major producers pull back, Alder supply tightens immediately. Red alder comprises only 8 to 15 percent of the volume in mixed commercial stands, growing alongside Douglas-fir, spruce, hemlock, and western red cedar. Reduced softwood logging forces reliance on Alder-heavy stands, further constraining the resource.

The normal fall logging slowdown adds pressure. In Washington, Public Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove’s restrictions have driven DNR timber sales well below plan. FY2025 sales totaled about 389 million board feet, nearly 200 million below the original plan, marking one of the lowest levels in decades. Early FY2026 data show Western Washington sales at only 114 million board feet in the first half, just 25 percent of the 459 million board foot annual target, with third-quarter projections similarly lagging. In Oregon, the Department of Forestry’s planned harvest levels have declined from roughly 225 million board feet per year a decade ago to about 185 million currently. These shortfalls limit the incidental Alder volume typically associated with mixed-stand softwood harvests.

National builders report clear pressure on new home sales and contracts. D.R. Horton has seen closings decline, and orders remain largely flat, with elevated incentives and higher cancellation rates limiting the ability to buy down mortgages and qualify buyers. Lennar reported a 9 percent drop in new orders and a 3 percent decline in deliveries in its latest quarter, prompting a second cut to its 2026 delivery target (now 80,000 to 81,000 homes). CEO Stuart Miller noted that mortgage rates near 7 percent and weaker confidence have led more buyers to delay decisions, with nearly 50 percent of visitors unable to qualify immediately in many markets; incentives have run near 12 percent. KB Home recorded steeper declines, including a 19 percent drop in deliveries and a 12 percent decline in net orders, as higher rates and economic uncertainty made buyers more cautious. Even luxury-focused Toll Brothers, where roughly 25 percent of buyers pay cash and rate sensitivity is lower, has seen deliveries fall about 10 percent in recent periods and revenue decline, though net signed contracts have held up better than at entry-level builders. Across the group, the reduced pace of new construction and contracts is slowing the cabinetry and millwork pipeline that supports Alder demand.

Cascade and our main competitor compete for available logs. Prices are already 15 to 20 percent higher than six months ago, with further rises and tighter grade availability expected.

Forecasts indicate a full schedule at the Cascade mill. Limited downtime, if any, would center at Port Angeles. Place December orders now, looking two months ahead. 4/4 Superior 10-foot and 4/4 CabinetPlus will be allocated. Most other grades, except Premium, are hand-to-mouth. This is where the sales reps at Cascade shine: get us your needs early, and let us work to accommodate as much of the market as possible.